Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 36.237203 41.024716 46.682734 54.001654 63.439434 75.542148 92.870966
2025-05-04 29.944096 35.843604 43.554387 54.858669 72.014727 99.258722 152.234016
2025-05-11 25.834534 32.102526 40.890312 55.051694 79.698450 127.918409 265.198688
2025-05-18 22.756533 29.007507 38.212826 54.128233 85.082828 158.667393 497.820365
2025-05-25 20.745457 27.017147 36.651514 54.400231 92.864416 206.665150 1449.550473
2025-06-01 19.059232 25.222307 34.999189 53.939898 98.939385 264.207503 22901.713723
2025-06-08 17.656568 23.662114 33.436181 53.171784 103.979166 336.442321 NaN
2025-06-15 16.506645 22.357281 32.089601 52.467806 108.976342 437.274861 NaN
2025-06-22 15.585835 21.317965 31.049371 52.145571 115.188555 604.398390 NaN
2025-06-29 14.662964 20.186551 29.692652 50.795258 117.319399 780.463730 NaN
2025-07-06 14.392105 20.106378 30.251186 54.060182 139.852529 2326.316816 NaN
2025-07-13 13.719448 19.282967 29.289061 53.339853 145.492624 5366.564351 NaN
2025-07-20 13.213821 18.719353 28.791265 53.786924 158.226106 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.779373 18.246623 28.421087 54.514789 174.388952 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 12.333317 17.719824 27.882143 54.653792 188.212654 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.840474 17.076326 27.037424 53.720086 194.180620 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.482828 16.653850 26.615107 53.979706 210.861928 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 11.101144 16.163774 26.002287 53.521521 221.772487 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.727709 15.667944 25.334723 52.761684 229.572456 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.386172 15.213209 24.720339 52.066016 237.913969 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 10.093811 14.834882 24.244009 51.747592 251.193133 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.755260 14.354438 23.506657 50.414066 250.266727 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.719266 14.439283 24.039424 53.637595 326.081644 NaN NaN